We all know how Rome fell, right? An empire that held control over most of Europe was defeated when innumerable hordes of barbarians poured through Germanic lands, their armies obliterated brave defenders, and sacked the glorious city, bringing with them centuries of feudal darkness.
Well, not quite. Let's take a more detailed approach, and see what was really going on...
So for starters, Rome was desperately out of money. The Roman plebs grew ever more numerous, and the bread and circuses they demanded became more and more costly. Events like mock ship battles in the Colosseum would be unimaginably expensive by today's standards, let alone for a preindustrial civilization. What started as a fairly minor issue slowly turned into a nightmare. While Rome managed to control the situation in the beginning, conquering new lands and sucking them dry to provide for the local proletariat-equivalent, as the city grew and rich borderlands shrank, the situation slowly became financially impossible to maintain. To end the social program was hardly a possibility anymore, considering the fact that such a measure would instantly turn the city of one million people into a bloody battlefield, where the emperor's forces were vastly outnumbered.
So what did the government do? What governments always do - raised taxes and created inflation. While the idea of printing unlimited amounts of fiat money was still nonexistent, what they did come up with was to put less and less silver into silver coins. Taxes were also raised to the point where normal people simply didn't have enough resources to both pay the taxes and not starve to death. No wonder the demographic picture looked pretty bleak.
Still, not all was doom and gloom. For those who had good connections with the elite, such as senators and their clique, tax deductions were allowed. Thus latifundia were born. The local villagers really had no way to compete with giant semi-industrialized agricultural holdings, and were soon forced to sell their lands to latifundium owners and thereby bind themselves and their work to their new owners. Thus feudalism was born.
With villages emptied and free folk turned to semi-slaves, Germanic tribes slowly poured in. Not through conquest, but through negotiation and diplomacy. As they moved in, they usually moved in bulk, creating something similar to vassal states within a larger Roman state. While officially subjects to the emperor, they pretty much had the freedom to do whatever they wanted to do, as long as they helped the Roman army in their campaigns. This was an important issue, since the army turned into a shadow of its former self, and was largely composed of Germans, mercenaries, and all other people that really didn't have much to do with Rome itself.
The society changed as well. Becoming a multicultural state, Roman gods and traditions slowly faded and became just one of thousands new deities. With nothing to believe in, moral decadence became ever more prominent. Emperors also began to take on godly status, some of them proclaiming themselves to be gods, thereby amplifying the charade. Sure, people had to pretend they were real gods, but in reality, it all just became one big mockery. This social disintegration ultimately allowed Christianity to take over and spread its less than enthusiastic stance towards serving the homeland.
Finally, when Attila the Hun came about, he found the Roman state practically ready to implode. Nevertheless, the half-Germanic general Aetius managed to defeat his hordes, which was pretty much what lead to his downfall, as the empiror Valentinian decided he became too powerful and should therefore be killed. This proved to be a tragic mistake for the Empire, as it turned out Aetius was pretty much the only person who still kept the disentangling mess in one piece.
Even with Aetius, the empire was really not much to be admired. Large swathes of land in today's Spain and France were effectively no longer under the emperor's control, and what was left was pretty much in shambles. While parts of the Empire had occasionally splintered off before, especially during the third century civil war, it was always thought of as one country. Therefore any generals who seceded didn't really want to have their own country next to Rome, they wanted to take control of the entire empire instead.
But this time around, as most parts of the Roman Empire were short of Romans and populated by tiny barbarian tribes instead, the new warlords had no real desire or possibility to reunite with other clans. It was simply impossible to keep the empire in one piece anymore. The eastern half, or Byzantium, managed to avoid that fate, held on to their lands, and survived another thousand years.
What is striking about this story is the resemblance to what is happening in today's western world. Let's go through the list, shall we?
Well, not quite. Let's take a more detailed approach, and see what was really going on...
Not quite sudden
So for starters, Rome was desperately out of money. The Roman plebs grew ever more numerous, and the bread and circuses they demanded became more and more costly. Events like mock ship battles in the Colosseum would be unimaginably expensive by today's standards, let alone for a preindustrial civilization. What started as a fairly minor issue slowly turned into a nightmare. While Rome managed to control the situation in the beginning, conquering new lands and sucking them dry to provide for the local proletariat-equivalent, as the city grew and rich borderlands shrank, the situation slowly became financially impossible to maintain. To end the social program was hardly a possibility anymore, considering the fact that such a measure would instantly turn the city of one million people into a bloody battlefield, where the emperor's forces were vastly outnumbered.
So what did the government do? What governments always do - raised taxes and created inflation. While the idea of printing unlimited amounts of fiat money was still nonexistent, what they did come up with was to put less and less silver into silver coins. Taxes were also raised to the point where normal people simply didn't have enough resources to both pay the taxes and not starve to death. No wonder the demographic picture looked pretty bleak.
Still, not all was doom and gloom. For those who had good connections with the elite, such as senators and their clique, tax deductions were allowed. Thus latifundia were born. The local villagers really had no way to compete with giant semi-industrialized agricultural holdings, and were soon forced to sell their lands to latifundium owners and thereby bind themselves and their work to their new owners. Thus feudalism was born.
With villages emptied and free folk turned to semi-slaves, Germanic tribes slowly poured in. Not through conquest, but through negotiation and diplomacy. As they moved in, they usually moved in bulk, creating something similar to vassal states within a larger Roman state. While officially subjects to the emperor, they pretty much had the freedom to do whatever they wanted to do, as long as they helped the Roman army in their campaigns. This was an important issue, since the army turned into a shadow of its former self, and was largely composed of Germans, mercenaries, and all other people that really didn't have much to do with Rome itself.
The society changed as well. Becoming a multicultural state, Roman gods and traditions slowly faded and became just one of thousands new deities. With nothing to believe in, moral decadence became ever more prominent. Emperors also began to take on godly status, some of them proclaiming themselves to be gods, thereby amplifying the charade. Sure, people had to pretend they were real gods, but in reality, it all just became one big mockery. This social disintegration ultimately allowed Christianity to take over and spread its less than enthusiastic stance towards serving the homeland.
Finally, when Attila the Hun came about, he found the Roman state practically ready to implode. Nevertheless, the half-Germanic general Aetius managed to defeat his hordes, which was pretty much what lead to his downfall, as the empiror Valentinian decided he became too powerful and should therefore be killed. This proved to be a tragic mistake for the Empire, as it turned out Aetius was pretty much the only person who still kept the disentangling mess in one piece.
Even with Aetius, the empire was really not much to be admired. Large swathes of land in today's Spain and France were effectively no longer under the emperor's control, and what was left was pretty much in shambles. While parts of the Empire had occasionally splintered off before, especially during the third century civil war, it was always thought of as one country. Therefore any generals who seceded didn't really want to have their own country next to Rome, they wanted to take control of the entire empire instead.
But this time around, as most parts of the Roman Empire were short of Romans and populated by tiny barbarian tribes instead, the new warlords had no real desire or possibility to reunite with other clans. It was simply impossible to keep the empire in one piece anymore. The eastern half, or Byzantium, managed to avoid that fate, held on to their lands, and survived another thousand years.
What is striking about this story is the resemblance to what is happening in today's western world. Let's go through the list, shall we?
- Inflation? Check
- Rising taxes? Check
- More welfare (ab)users? Check
- Rising state debt? Check
- Uncontrolled immigration? Check
- No-go zones in parts of sovereign territory (today's inner cities)? Check
- Moral and social disintegration? Check
- Crony capitalism (latifundia)? Check
If something walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, then it's quite possible that it's actually a duck. History repeats itself, and today's duck walks and quacks staggeringly similar to the duck of late Rome. Rome didn't fall in one battle, it was falling apart for centuries. As its internal weakness allowed immigrants occupied parts of its territory, what was left in the end was an empty skeleton. And when the skeleton collapsed, all the lands it held together simply went their own separate ways. There was no sudden foreign invasion, just constant immigration and internal decay. It was not an event, it was a process which lasted for centuries. And one that is strikingly similar to what we see today. What is happening in today's Marseilles or Arizona is exactly what was happening in Roman Iberia and Gaul. And it will end the same way.
Is there a light at the end of the tunnel? A weak one, but yes. Byzantium survived, and it looks like it might survive again. Although it moved 2000 kilometers to the north.
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